Léo Picard

Léo Picard

Doctor in Economics

University of Basel

About me

I’m a recent Ph.D. graduate and assistant at the University of Basel within the Department of Public Economics. My research focuses on the effectiveness of the E.U. Emissions Trading Scheme and its impacts on firms’ behavior.

I also enjoy collaborating with my colleagues from ETH Zürich in the Law, Economics, and Data Science group. Specifically, we study political rhetoric and the framing of public policies in the U.S. media.

Download my C.V.

Interests
  • Public Economics
  • Climate Policy
  • Political Communication
Education
  • PhD in Economics, 2021 - 2026

    University of Basel

  • Pre-doc, NLP and ML, 2020 - 2021

    ETH Zürich

  • Master of Science in Economics, 2019

    University of Lausanne (HEC)

Research

Publications


Working papers


Work in progress

  • “When Employment Sours, Do Elections Turn Bitter?” (single authored)
    The tone of recent U.S. elections has been predominantly negative, raising concerns that politicians’ use of personal attacks and aggressive language is fueling anger, threatening the cohesion of society, and inciting violence. This paper investigates the role of economic hardship in driving negative political communication, using the China trade shock as a natural experiment affecting manufacturing unemployment in the United States. Leveraging unstructured data on televised political advertising from 2000 to 2022, I employ language models to recover transcripts and annotate them for the presence, intensity, and aim of attacks on political opponents. Results suggest that local exposure to the China shock amplifies the use of political attacks only in ads favoring challenger candidates. A one standard deviation increase in import exposure raises the share of challenger airings containing at least one attack by about two percentage points for three election cycles, from 2008–2010 to 2016–2018. Moreover, the aim of attacks shifts from policy-focused critiques to personal attacks, with language becoming gradually more toxic. These findings suggest that economic hardship slowly steers electoral communication away from policy debate and toward more divisive rhetoric.

  • “Echoes of Anger in Democracy: Independent Campaign Expenditures And Attack Ads in U.S. Politics” (with Alois Stutzer and Patrick Balles)

Teaching assistance

Economics of Public Policy

Every fall semester, Master level

Course catalog page


Seminars in Public and Environmental Economics

Bachelor (spring semester) and Master (fall semester) levels

Bachelor course catalog pageMaster course catalog page


Introduction to Python programming

Every start of the semester, all levels

Course catalog page - GitHub repository

Contact

Office

University of Basel
Faculty of Business and Economics
Peter Merian-Weg 6, office 4.40
4002 Basel, Switzerland

E-mail